Moebe Vision | Siloxane Market, End the War


Introduction: DMC, also known as ring, is similar to PDMS, which is the upstream of silicone production. It is commonly called siloxane in China. At present, the global supply of siloxane is facing a situation of oversupply, especially in China, which is deeply involved in price war, and almost all of the 14 upstream suppliers in China are losing money, which may lead to further mergers. Developing deeper downstream, creating closed-loop and avoiding homogeneous competition are what every practitioner has learned in this war. I wonder if there will be another new battlefield in the downstream market after the end of the DMC war.


1. The worldwide production capacity of siloxane reached 2.55 million tons in 2015, and the output reached 1.92 million tons.


Research shows that the global production capacity of siloxane CAGR is 6.4% in 2010-2015, and the actual production capacity of siloxane is 2.55 million tons in 2015. It is estimated that CAGR will be 2.4% in 2016-2020, and the production capacity will reach 2.87 million tons in 2020. That is to say, in the next five years, the global production and expansion of siloxane plants will slow down, and the global overcapacity situation will continue.


In terms of production, the global CAGR was 5.6% in 2010-2015, and the actual production in 2015 was 1.92 million tons. CAGR is expected to be 2.6% in 2016-2020, and its output will reach 2.18 million tons in 2020. This shows that investors have tended to be rational and tend to increase the start-up rate, rather than blindly expand capacity.


From 2011 to 2015, the global start-up rate of siloxane remained stable, reaching 75% in 2015. It is expected to climb steadily to 76% by 2020.


2. Domestic siloxane production capacity reached 1.22 million tons in 2015, and the output reached 770,000 tons.


Data show that in 2010-2015, the domestic production capacity of siloxane CAGR is 16%, and the actual production capacity of siloxane in 2015 is 1.22 million tons (converted by monomer multiplied by 0.45). It is estimated that CAGR will be 3% in 2016-2020, and production capacity will reach 1.42 million tons in 2020. After the rapid growth of domestic siloxane during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, it has entered the mature period of the market and developed slowly.


In terms of output, the domestic CAGR was 18% in 2010-2015, and the actual output in 2015 was 770,000 tons. CAGR is expected to be 3% in 2016-2020, and its output will reach 910,000 tons in 2020.


Startup rate climbed slowly from 60% in 2011 to 63% in 2015, and is expected to remain stable for the next five years.